This is Mark Staples with the avalanche forecast on Saturday, April 12th, at 7:00 a.m. sponsored by Spark R&D and World Boards. This forecast does not apply to operating ski areas.
The tug of war between winter and summer continues. Following high temperatures yesterday in the 40s and 50s F, overnight air temps stayed above freezing only dropping into the upper 30s F. Cloudy skies overnight likely prevented any radiational refreezing of the snowpack. Light winds this morning are coming from the southwest
An approaching trough of low pressure will bring a little bit of everything in today’s weather. Temperatures should warm to either side of 40° F this morning before cooling this afternoon when a cold front finally passes overhead bringing cold air by the end of the day.
Winds will increase this afternoon blowing 15-20 mph gusting in the 30s mostly from the southwest but switching to the west-northwest in the mountains near Bozeman. Cloudy skies will be spitting rain and snow (mostly snow in the mountains) this morning. A bit more snow should fall this afternoon with most areas receiving an inch or so. A few places like maybe near Cooke City and the northern Gallatin Range could get 2-4 inches by tonight, but your guess is as good as mine.
All Regions
Wet loose avalanches continue to be the main avalanche concern. The snowpack should be mostly wet this morning from above freezing overnight air temperatures and cloudy skies. Wet snow can even be found on north facing slopes except at the highest elevations. Without any sunshine today and cooling temperature this afternoon, I don’t expect much wet snow avalanche activity.
Look out for areas where the snowpack is especially wet and unsupportable like slopes that were in the sun yesterday - wet loose avalanches will be more likely in these areas. Places with more supportable snow will have the lowest likelihood for wet avalanches and better skiing and riding conditions.
Wind slab avalanches were an issue during the past week, but they have likely stabilized. Look out for a few shallow, new ones that may form late today with snow and increased winds.
Large overhanging cornices are always a concern, but more so with such warm temperatures. A local guide skiing near Cooke City yesterday spotted a large cornice fall midday. Stay far back from the edge of corniced ridges, and move fast if you have to travel under them.
Avalanche conditions are generally safe but the snowpack hasn’t gotten a good refreeze, so the avalanche danger is MODERATE.
If you encounter an error with our observation submission platform, please email your observations to mtavalanche@gmail.com
Hyalite Road Closure
The Hyalite Canyon Road is closed to ALL MOTORIZED VEHICLES until May 16. This is a regular annual road closure to reduce road damage during the spring thaw. Bicycle and foot traffic are allowed. Contact the Bozeman FS Ranger District for more info.
Our last daily avalanche forecast will be Sunday, April 20th. We will issue updates on Mondays and Fridays through the end of April.